"The death rate in Russia is rising, and the war is making the situation worse"

Vladimir Putin on Monday signed an order to create a Council for the Implementation of Demographic and Family Policy, according to the official document published on the government website.

The low birthrate was recently described by the Kremlin as "catastrophic for the future of the nation", while a war on abortions is being raged, and the goal of improving the birthrate described by Putin as "the most important”: 

"I understand that this is a very difficult task," Putin said on December 5 at the meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects, "and frankly speaking, due to objective circumstances, perhaps not everything depends on us. But we must do everything that depends on us to achieve a steady increase in the birth rate in our country," the head of state stressed. 

Russia's birth rate is average compared to many European countries, but what sets it apart is its steadily rising death rate.

As the war in Ukraine continues, the situation is worsening, experts tell the Barents Observer. Earlier this year The Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) of Russia has published demographic data for the year 2023. Similar to the 2022, it showed a sharp increase in excess mortality among young men compared to the situation before the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, news outlet Meduza reported. 

Russian men 

“Russia has had high mortality and low life expectancy since the 1970s, especially among men,” independent Russian demographer Alexey Raksha told the Barents Observer on the phone. “And it’s clear that the war has made this situation even worse.”

Alexey Raksha, who lives and works in Moscow, added that in figures in 2024 will amount to 1,840,000-1,850,000 people. While in 2023, approximately 1,764,618 people died. That is, the increase in mortality was 80-85 thousand.

“But the war is not the main reason why the death toll is growing by about 5% in 2024.” Raksha emphasized. 

“I assume that this is probably also the consequence of alcoholism,” he said, adding that Russia needs to follow the Scandinavian model of controlling the consumption of hard liquors, significantly increasing taxes, reducing the number of points of sale and their working hours, and also should "set KPIs for all law enforcement agencies" to suppress the illegal production, smuggling and sale of strong alcohol and cigarettes.

Child-free

Instead, in November this year Russian MPs decided to ban what they called “child-free propaganda". 

"Banning child-free is political idiocy, hysteria. Bans do not help improve demographics," Raksha told the Barents Observer.

In addition to controlling strong alcohol consumption, Raksha also believes that an effective measure to improve demography would be for a state to pay good money for a 2nd and a 3rd child. 

Raksha is also very critical of the Russian state's policy towards migrants, as more and more restrictions and difficulties are imposed on those who want to move to Russia to work and live: 

Russia's policy in terms of migrants is complete destruction. Complete destruction of any remnants of Russia's migration attractiveness in favor of political propaganda goals. Without migration, in the next decades there won't be any population growth in Russia," said Raksha.

Barents Observer: Thousands of people have also left Russia after the full-scale invasion. What is the demographic impact of it? 

"The number of people who fled from Russia after the war is about the same as the number of those who came here as refugees from Ukraine," Raksha told the Barents Observer. "But they are completely different people. It was mostly young men and educated people who left Russia. And those who came here as refugees are women with children and old people. So in terms of numbers it's almost zero, but in economic terms it's a minus".