Converting political prisoners into contributions to Putin’s war chest

There is a plan under development to exchange political prisoners held in Russia for relief from economic sanctions. On the surface this may seem to be a win-win on the path toward peace in Ukraine, but this plan is deeply flawed. It fails to take into account factors such as added incentive for Putin to take more citizens hostage, how prisoners will be selected, and lack of a viable destination for those released. Worst of all, this plan is a cruel irony trampling on the very convictions of those who oppose the war, turning them into donations to support Putin’s further murder of Ukrainian citizens.

The Atlantic (Sept 29, 2026) has reported that, with Trump’s blessing, special envoy John Coale has presented Putin with a plan to gain the release of political prisoners in Russia in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions. This follows on Coale’s successful negotiations that led to the release of hundreds of Belarusian political prisoners in the past year. Coale argues for his plan in the language of a business deal that would benefit both sides and open a path for cooperation that could ultimately bring about an end to the war. Also on board is Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitry Muratov, echoing a previous idea of his to exchange Ukrainian prisoners of war for Russian political prisoners, a failed plan that I also criticized.

While the aim of freeing political prisoners is laudable, this situation is far more complicated than it might seem at first glance. There are many issues that cannot be easily addressed, among them: what signal such a plan will send to Putin, how to decide who gets released, what will happen to those that get released, and what this plan means for the prisoners themselves.

If Putin can swap political prisoners (in effect, people he doesn’t want or care about, indeed considers to be his enemies) for monetary benefits, he will a) use this money to step up financing for his war and b) he will be incentivized to arrest more and more people to trade for more and more money. Putin doesn’t care about the well-being and human rights of his own citizens, and the number that he can use as hostages is limited only by the size of the Russian population (over 140 million, and here note that political prisoners in Russia include also children, the elderly, and the infirm). 

It is unclear exactly how many political prisoners are currently languishing in Russian prisons. Estimates range from a few thousand to over ten thousand. The Kremlin doesn’t keep a list of its political prisoners. While some are charged with “crimes” that are obviously connected to political convictions, such as “discrediting the army”, many are incarcerated for various other invented crimes ranging from dealing in narcotics to corruption. Human rights organizations such as Memorial and OVD-Info struggle to identify and maintain databases of credible cases of political persecution and acknowledge that their information covers only a fraction of the total number of political prisoners. Any exchange under these circumstances will inevitably leave many political prisoners, perhaps most of them, still in prison.

Where will these prisoners go when they are released? If released in Russia, they won’t be really “free”, since they can be re-arrested. So will they be sent to another country? Which one? After months or years of torture and inhumane conditions, political prisoners will be in need of serious and sustained psychological rehabilitation to assist with reintegration. Who will fund and administrate the needed support programs? The Belarusian human rights organization “Vjasna” has launched a major (volunteer and supported by donations) effort to resettle released political prisoners, almost entirely in other countries, since former prisoners find it impossible to get jobs or reconnect to their networks of friends and colleagues who are afraid to associate with them. 

Political prisoners are people who put their own lives on the line in order to oppose the war. How will they feel about serving as pawns in a business deal between Trump and Putin, essentially being turned into moneybags wrapped in human flesh, that will fund more killing in Ukraine? Will anyone consult them?